What Is a Good Win Rate in Trading?
A win rate only says how often trades win. Whether it is good depends on how much the winners earn and the losers cost.
Measure My Win RateThere is no universal good win rate. A win rate tells you how often a trade ends in profit, and says nothing about how much it earns or loses. A trader who wins 70% of the time can lose money, and a trader who wins 35% of the time can make it, because what counts is the size of the winners and losers together.
The win rate you need depends on your reward-to-risk ratio. A strategy that risks 1 to make 3 can lose most of its trades and still do well. A strategy that makes small gains and takes occasional large losses needs a very high win rate just to break even. The table below shows the break-even win rate for several ratios.
The calculation is short. The win rate you need to break even is the average loss divided by the sum of the average win and the average loss. If your winners are 1.5 times your losers, you need to win 40% of the time to break even, and everything above that is profit before costs. The break-even win rate calculator does this for your own numbers.
A win rate also moves with how you exit. Closing winners early raises it and lowers the average win, which can leave you worse off. If you suspect that is happening, read why traders cut winners early and hold losers. Be careful with small samples too: a win rate over 20 trades moves a lot from one week to the next, as how many trades you need explains.
So compare your win rate to your own break-even, not to a number someone quotes. Then look at expectancy and profit factor, which combine win rate with payoff in one figure and answer the question that matters: does the average trade make money?
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The win rate you need depends on the payoff
For each reward-to-risk ratio, the win rate at which a strategy breaks even, and what a 40% win rate would earn per trade at that ratio.
| Reward per 1 risked | Break-even win rate | Expectancy at a 40% win rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 to 1 | 66.7% | −0.40R |
| 1.0 to 1 | 50.0% | −0.20R |
| 1.5 to 1 | 40.0% | 0.00R |
| 2.0 to 1 | 33.3% | +0.20R |
| 3.0 to 1 | 25.0% | +0.60R |
Illustration before fees and slippage. R is the amount risked on a trade.
How to read your win rate
Against your break-even
Your win rate is good if it is above the one your average win and loss require. Calculate that figure first, then compare.
With the payoff
Win rate and reward-to-risk always go together. A higher one of either can make up for a lower other, which is why neither works as a score on its own.
Within one strategy
Mixing different strategies, markets or timeframes in one win rate hides what each of them does. Measure them separately where you can.
Over enough trades
A handful of trades is mostly noise. Treat a win rate as an estimate that improves as the number of trades grows, and check the expectancy alongside it.
Frequently asked questions
Is a 50% win rate good?
It is good if your average win is at least as large as your average loss, because then you are at or above break-even before costs. If your average loss is larger than your average win, 50% loses money, so the answer depends on the payoff.
Can I be profitable with a win rate below 50%?
Yes, when the winners are large enough compared with the losers. With a reward-to-risk ratio of 2 to 1, a win rate of 34% already covers the losses before costs. The table above shows other ratios.
Is there a typical win rate for crypto traders?
There is no reliable single figure, because results differ by market, strategy and period, and the people who share numbers publicly are not a random sample. Compare yourself with your own break-even and your own history.
Does a higher win rate mean a better strategy?
Not by itself. A strategy can raise its win rate by taking profits very early, which shrinks the average win. Judge a strategy by its expectancy per trade after costs, and by how stable it is over many trades.
Keep going
Calculators
Break-Even Win Rate Calculator
Calculators
Trading Expectancy Calculator
Calculators
Risk Reward Ratio Calculator
Research
What Is Expectancy in Trading?
Research
What Is a Good Risk Reward Ratio in Trading?
Trading problems
Why Are My Losses Bigger Than My Wins?
Learn
How to Draw the Right Conclusions from Your Own Trading Data
Holdy Lab content is educational and is not financial advice. Results describe the data you provide; they do not predict future results.