Trading Expectancy Calculator
Find out what an average trade earns or costs you, from your win rate and averages.
Calculate ExpectancyExpectancy is the average amount you gain or lose per trade if your results continue to look like your history. It combines the three numbers that define a strategy, how often you win, how much you win, and how much you lose, into a single figure that is positive if the approach pays and negative if it does not.
The formula is simple. Multiply your win rate by your average win. Multiply your loss rate by your average loss. Subtract the second from the first. A positive result is the average gain per trade, and over a hundred trades you would expect about a hundred times that amount, if the numbers hold.
The calculator also gives expectancy in R, where one R is your average loss. This makes it comparable across account sizes and over time: an expectancy of +0.3 R means an average trade earns about a third of what you risk. It is also a useful reality check on a strategy that feels good. Many feel good with an expectancy below zero.
Expectancy is an average, and averages hide variation. A positive number does not mean the next trade, or the next ten, will be positive. For the totals behind the inputs, use the profit factor calculator or upload your history to the trading performance analyzer.
Expectancy per trade
+8.80
In R (multiples of your average loss)
+0.18 R
Over 100 trades, on average
+880.00
An average over many trades, not a prediction for the next one. Costs are not included unless they are inside your averages.
A calculator uses numbers you type in. To see what your own trades actually show, upload your trade history.
Analyze my tradesHow it is calculated
The formula
Expectancy = (win rate × average win) − (loss rate × average loss), where loss rate is one minus the win rate.
In R
Expectancy divided by the average loss. One R is the typical amount you lose on a losing trade.
Over many trades
Expectancy multiplied by the number of trades gives the average total you would expect, not a promise for any particular stretch.
What to feed it
Use averages from real, recent trades, after fees. A win rate and averages from only a few trades will give a number that is mostly noise.
Frequently asked questions
What is a positive expectancy?
It means that, on average, a trade earns money before costs you have not included. It is the minimum requirement for a strategy to be worth trading, but it is not enough on its own, since small positive values can be erased by fees and by random variation over a limited number of trades.
What is the difference between expectancy and profit factor?
Expectancy gives the average result of one trade in money or in R. Profit factor compares total profit with total loss. Both are positive or above 1 under the same conditions, but expectancy tells you how much, per trade, and profit factor tells you how the totals compare.
How many trades do I need to trust my expectancy?
More than most people expect. Win rate and average sizes are noisy over small samples, so expectancy from a few dozen trades can easily mislead. How many trades you need explains how the uncertainty shrinks as the sample grows.
Does expectancy include fees?
Only if your average win and average loss are already after fees. For a realistic number, enter net figures, so that what each winning and losing trade really paid or cost you is what the calculation sees.
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Holdy Lab content is educational and is not financial advice. Results describe the data you provide; they do not predict future results.