Prop Firm Challenge Simulator
Test your numbers against a profit target, a drawdown limit and a deadline, and see how often the attempt passes, fails or runs out of time.
Your trading
The firm's rules
Chance of passing
69.1% ± 1.4
Typical days to pass
13
Fail: maximum drawdown
14.5%
Fail: daily loss limit
0.0%
Out of time, no result
16.5%
Expectancy per trade
+0.13R
4,000 simulated attempts using your numbers. Trades are assumed independent, each risking a fixed share of the starting balance, with a static drawdown. It ignores trailing drawdowns, minimum trading days, fees and slippage, so it is an estimate and not a forecast.
Your win rate and reward-to-risk here are inputs you chose. Your trade history has the real ones, and shows whether they hold on bad days.
Analyze my tradesA prop firm challenge is a probability problem as much as a skill problem. You need to reach a profit target before you hit a drawdown limit, and often before a deadline. A trader with a real edge can still fail because a normal losing run arrives at the wrong time, and a trader with no edge can pass on a lucky run. The simulator lets you see how those pieces interact before you pay for an attempt.
It runs 4,000 simulated attempts using your win rate, your reward-to-risk ratio, the share of the account you risk per trade and the firm's rules. Each trade is a random win or loss with your odds. The result is the share of attempts that reached the target, the share that broke a limit, and the share that ran out of days with no result.
The output is only as honest as the inputs. Use the win rate and reward-to-risk from your actual trade history rather than the numbers you hope for. A simulator fed optimistic inputs will give an optimistic answer. If you do not know your real figures, the expectancy calculator and the trade analyzer under the simulator are the places to get them.
The simulator shows you the part you can calculate. It cannot show how you will behave after three losses in a row with the drawdown line close, which is where many attempts are actually lost. That part is covered in trading psychology for prop firm challenges.
What the model assumes
Win: balance + risk % × reward
Loss: balance − risk %
Pass: profit reaches the target. Fail: balance falls to the drawdown limit, or below the day's opening balance by the daily limit
Each trade risks a fixed share of the starting balance, trades are independent, and the drawdown is measured from the starting balance. A tie between the two limits counts as the maximum drawdown.
How win rate changes the odds under one set of rules
Simulated rules: 10% profit target, 10% maximum drawdown, 5% daily loss limit, 30 days, 3 trades a day, 1% risked per trade and a 1.5 reward-to-risk ratio. 4,000 simulated attempts per row.
| Win rate | Expectancy per trade | Pass | Fail (limits hit) | Unfinished |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35% | -0.13R | 11.3% | 72.1% | 16.6% |
| 40% | 0.00R | 35.9% | 37.4% | 26.7% |
| 45% | 0.13R | 69.1% | 14.5% | 16.5% |
| 50% | 0.25R | 90.8% | 3.4% | 5.8% |
| 55% | 0.38R | 98.7% | 0.5% | 0.8% |
Illustration, not a forecast. The rules are an example and every firm sets its own. Each row is a simulation of independent trades; real trading is not that regular.
Reading the result
Chance of passing
The share of simulated attempts that hit the profit target. The plus-minus figure is the sampling margin from using 4,000 attempts, not uncertainty about your real odds.
Fail and unfinished
Fails split into the maximum drawdown and the daily limit. Unfinished attempts neither passed nor failed before the days ran out, which is the usual outcome when risk per trade is too small for the deadline.
Risk per trade is the biggest lever
With a 45% win rate, a reward of 1.5R and the example rules, risking 0.5% per trade passes 32.3% of attempts and leaves 66.5% unfinished. Risking 1% passes about 69%. Risking 2% passes 43.3% and fails 56.7%. Too small runs out of time, too large breaks a limit.
Expectancy decides the long run
If a trade loses money on average, extra trades make a pass less likely, not more. The result also shows your expectancy per trade in R, so you can see whether your inputs have an edge at all.
Frequently asked questions
Can a simulator tell me whether I will pass?
No. It tells you how often a trader with the numbers you entered would pass if every trade were independent and followed those odds. Real trading has streaks, emotions and market changes, so treat the result as a way to compare plans, not as a prediction.
What win rate do I need to pass a prop firm challenge?
It depends on your reward-to-risk ratio. With a reward of 1.5R the break-even win rate is 40%, where a trade makes nothing on average. Passing at that level depends heavily on luck, so most traders aim for a win rate and ratio that give a clearly positive expectancy.
Does it handle a trailing drawdown?
No. It measures the drawdown from the starting balance. A drawdown that trails your highest balance is stricter than that, so if your firm uses one, your real chance of passing can be lower than the simulation shows.
Why does the same input always give the same answer?
The simulation uses a fixed random sequence so results are stable and comparable. Changing any input changes the outcome, and the plus-minus figure shows how much the number of simulated attempts could move it.
Does the simulator model tilt or revenge trading?
No, it treats every trade as independent. Real traders often change their size after a loss, which can push an attempt toward a limit. You can check whether you do that with the revenge trading analyzer on your own trades.
Keep going
Holdy Lab content is educational and is not financial advice. Results describe the data you provide; they do not predict future results.